10 DAYS TO ELECTION: The Numbers Are Closer Than Anyone Thinks

Both candidates face challenges on the path to victory. Biden is doing better in the polls than Trump, but it’s unknown if those will translate to votes on Election Day.

Photo by Adam Schultz / Biden for President

Welcome to Day 10 before the historic 2020 election. More than 50 million Americans have already voted.  As we enter this weekend, the news has moved on already from the final presidential debate that happened just two days ago. The debate may have been dull, but Washington D.C. likes decorum, no matter how fake. Those who praise the civilized and presidential tone of the final face-off are either college-educated and beyond or political nerds, who make up a minority group in America. 

Yesterday, President Trump was waving on social media with pictures from his massive rallies, a power-in-numbers display, flaunted on the grounds that Joe Biden has yet to draw such a crowd.

Both candidates face challenges on the path to victory. Biden is doing better in the polls than Trump, but it’s unknown if those will translate to votes on Election Day. If the polls are not capturing the hidden Trump vote, as they failed to last year, the polls could stand in the exact position they did last year: unreliable. We are left to balance momentum from various sources, some good, some biased, in making judgments about who is likely to win. As each camp thought their candidate the debate victor, each camp believes their candidate is moving toward victory.

Ban Page of UK’s IPSOS MORI, suggested yesterday that Trump only has a 25% chance of winning the election and that pundits are most likely overcompensating for being blindsided in 2016. 

“There is still a 25% chance of a Trump victory, but, knowing the pundit class, the greater chance is that we are all overcompensating for being blindside in 2016. That is what happened in polling in the UK in 2014-16.”

 

Scaramucci went to Twitter to say that the numbers are much closer than people think, and if he is saying so, then it’s likely that Trump’s ahead and that Biden still does not have the vote in the bag. 

Today, at 9:53 am, resident Trump arrived at the Palm Beach County Main Library, across the street from his West Palm Beach golf club, to cast his ballot. 

“I voted for a guy named Trump,” the President quipped on his way out of the polling station.

Today, President Trump has a campaign full of activities. He will be holding Make America Great Again Victory rallies in three swing-states: Lumberton, North Carolina;; Circleville, Ohio; and Waukesha and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  In Lumberton, NC, Trump will deliver a speech on “fighting for the forgotten men and women.” 

VP Mike Pence will hold rallies in Lakeland and Tallahassee, Florida.

The Biden campaign will also be busy, with the Bidens campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Kamala Harris will be in Cleveland for an early vote launch mobilization event and virtual fundraisers. Obama will hit Orlando and Miami in Florida. 

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